Bitcoin will reach a local low of around $60,000 in the first half of the year, analysts believe.
Although short-term volatility may persist later, experts expect a reversal and the beginning of bitcoin's growth.
The investment company's experts attribute the current decline in the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization to the rising cost of gold — it was the precious metal that investors switched to after the central banks of major countries, including China and India, warmed up the price of the asset with high demand. According to Bernstein, bitcoin's capitalization has dropped to about 4% of gold's capitalization, which is an almost two—year low.
Despite bitcoin's relative weakness, analysts believe that the last two years have been a period of "institutional cycle" for it. The distinguishing features were a sharp increase in spot bitcoin ETFs to $165 billion and an increase in corporate bitcoin reserves.
The current cycle is fundamentally different from the previous phases of rapid growth /recession, which were more often driven by the activity of retail investors, according to Bernstein. The main difference is the stability of corporate investors against the background of the correction. Analysts list the following factors that will make the bearish cycle short:
• The outflow of funds from ETFs since the peak of assets has accounted for a relatively small proportion of the total volume.
• There is no large-scale capitulation of miners, which was typical for previous cycles.
• Corporate holders such as Strategy continue to purchase Bitcoin. Since the beginning of the year, they have acquired $3.8 billion worth of BTC, even despite the loss.
Analysts are paying attention to the potentially positive impact of American politics. Quotes can be raised by events such as the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve in the United States, the appointment of Kevin Warsh as head of the US Federal Reserve, and the growing political support for the crypto industry in general.
The weakening of the market rather reflects the late stage of correction, rather than the beginning of a protracted crypto winter, Bernstein representatives hope.
Earlier, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant's cryptanalytic service, suggested that a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the coming months is unlikely and the main crypto asset will remain in protracted stagnation.