Ethereum has fallen 34% since the beginning of 2026, while Bitcoin has lost 23% of its value and XRP 24.59%, Polymarket users are not overtly optimistic about the ETH price by the end of February
While the most anticipated drop is an 18% drop to $1600, the probability of this event was only 29% on February 11.
Other predictions on this market include a 14% chance of $1400 and a 5% chance of $1200. As for bullish bets, they are much more cautious: reaching $2800 is possible with a 5% chance, and $3000 with a 3% chance.
Possible Ethereum prices at the end of February. Source: Polymarket
Furthermore, target levels of $4,200 to $5,000 are considered unlikely, according to Polymarket traders, as the probability of their realization is less than 1%.
The general lack of confidence in cryptocurrency growth is easily explained, as the current decline has misled many.
On the one hand, it is widely believed that the downward phase of the digital asset cycle began in October 2025 and will last at least until the end of 2026.
On the other hand, analysts say that this time, the sector's decline is radically different from previous ones due to the participation of institutional investors, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for major cryptocurrencies, and a more favorable regulatory climate.
These bullish factors have led some experts to suggest that the current decline is temporary and that digital assets could still reach new all-time highs by the end of 2026.