US President Donald Trump appears to be preparing for an early exit from the war with Iran, according to a note from Wolfe Research on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump appears to be preparing for an early exit from the war with Iran, according to a note from Wolfe Research on Tuesday.
Analyst Tobin Marcus writes that Trump "took the first step toward what we've argued will be the endgame... by declaring victory and attempting to exit," following a sharp market rally in which the president declared "the war is virtually over."
Marcus notes that Trump delivered a "triumphant but contradictory message" at his press conference, simultaneously claiming that US forces have degraded and destroyed Iran's missile, drone, and naval capabilities, while insisting the war won't end this week.
Trump also warned that he would destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure if threats to the Strait of Hormuz continue.
"This is exactly the endgame we've always expected, but Trump is eyeing the exits even earlier than we anticipated," Marcus writes. Wolfe "set a shorter timeframe than the 4-5 weeks" the president had previously announced, but they didn't expect him to "begin moving toward an exit as early as day nine."
Whether the conflict will subside now depends largely on Tehran. Marcus warns that "it's too early for Iran to accept a ceasefire on Trump's terms," noting that Iranian leaders have vowed that "not a single liter of oil" will pass through the strait if US strikes continue.
If Iran can still threaten shipping, Marcus warns, "we're likely still far from the strike price of the 'Trump put.'"
"If the US is unable to reopen the strait through military coercion, other policy steps under consideration could help somewhat, particularly the release of strategic oil reserves," Marcus stated. "A globally coordinated release of about 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves would be significant, potentially offsetting about 20 days of supply through the Strait."