Goldman Sachs has once again revised its oil price forecasts upwards.
Analysts are sounding the alarm: the protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an “extreme” and unprecedented depletion of global reserves of raw materials, according to Bloomberg.
A team of strategists led by Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova-Grigsby reported that the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 would be $90 per barrel. The bank's previous forecast was $80.
"Our updated forecast for the end of the year is now almost $30 higher than we expected before the 'Oromuz shock,'" the analysts emphasized, pointing out that this is not the first upward revision of their estimates. For the near term, Goldman expects the average Brent price to be around $100 per barrel in the current quarter and $93 in the third quarter.
Goldman Sachs no longer believes in a quick resolution of the crisis. Analysts have moved the timeline for the normalization of exports from the Persian Gulf from mid-May to late June, while the recovery of production itself will be even slower.
"The economic risks for the world are now much higher than our baseline scenario for crude oil prices. The reasons are the clear potential for further price increases, the abnormally high cost of petroleum products, the risk of a physical shortage of fuel, and the unprecedented scale of the shock itself," the bank's experts concluded.
Morgan Stanley's Wall Street colleagues agree with the severity of the situation. According to calculations by the team led by Martin Rats, oil exports from the Persian Gulf have decreased by 14.2 million barrels per day due to the Ormuz blockade. At the same time, global reserves are decreasing by 4.8 million bpd — the difference between the fall in exports and the fall in reserves is compensated by the very "destruction of demand" due to high prices.
Morgan Stanley has maintained its tough forecasts for Brent oil prices: $110 per barrel in the current quarter, $100 in the third quarter, and $90 in the fourth quarter of 2026.