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Bitcoin's expected volatility fell to a nine-month low amid thin trading and speculative capital outflows, Bloomberg reports.
The Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index fell to 36.11, its lowest since September last year.
The decline comes as Bitcoin struggles to consolidate above $80,000. Currently, the coin is trading around $77,000—almost 40% below its October all-time high of above $126,000. In May, about $1 billion was withdrawn from US spot ETFs, breaking a two-month streak of inflows.
"Volatility is approaching all-time lows. Retail interest is shifting to other sectors for new trading opportunities, as evidenced by the outflows from ETFs," notes Caroline Moron, co-founder of Orbit Markets.
This stagnation contrasts with the broad rally in other assets: US markets are setting new records on hopes for peace in Iran, while South Korean and Taiwanese indices are rising thanks to the AI and semiconductor boom. Speculative "hot money" has flowed into the AI sector and memory stocks.
Low volatility is also explained by the actions of major players. According to Rajiv Sawhney of Wave Digital Assets, options selling has become one of the market's main strategies:
"Bitcoin has no inherent yield, so for miners, sovereign investors, and large funds, selling volatility has become a way to generate income from their assets."
As a result, any price surges are quickly dampened by options sellers, making it increasingly difficult for Bitcoin to sustain breakouts.