Previous article
Goldman cuts gold forecast by $500 due to Fed rate hike threat
Economy
Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold price forecast by $500 per ounce as it now expects the Fed to raise interest rates in 2026.
The revised target of $4,900 per ounce for December suggests that gold will still rise in the second half, albeit weaker than previously expected, the bank's analysts note.
"Our view on the price of gold remains structurally constructive, but tactically cautious, with short-term downside risk and medium-term upside potential," the experts emphasized.
In recent years, Goldman has been one of the most consistent bulls on gold, and the adjusted forecast reflects a slight change in tone. At the end of 2024, it advised investors to "bet on gold," accurately predicting a powerful rally.
In recent months, the precious metal has faced difficulties, as the war in the Middle East initially pushed energy prices higher, increasing expectations of a tightening monetary policy. This week, the Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged, but signaled growing support for an increase this year. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has pledged to restore price stability.
The downgrade is driven by more modest expectations for inflows into gold-backed ETFs after the bank's economists moved their expectations for the Fed's rate cut to June and December next year (previously December 2026 and March 2027).
If the Fed raises rates, "demand for gold as a macro hedge could turn more sustainably," and prices could be at $4,400 by the end of the year, the analysts said.
This possibility has already been pointed out by some Goldman executives: The Fed may have to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains high, Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan said this week.
However, there are still several factors supporting gold, including central bank purchases (estimated at 50 tons per month this year and 40 tons next year).
On Friday, gold futures were trading around $4,165 per ounce, and the metal was heading towards its third weekly decline. After a rally to a record low of just under $5,600 per ounce in late January, prices ended the third consecutive month of decline in May.