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Oil is heading for its biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic: tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated following progress in peace talks.
Morgan Stanley is warning of the risk of a market glut.
The more active September Brent contract is trading above $73 per barrel on Tuesday, while front-month futures have lost almost a third in the quarter—the biggest decline since 2020. WTI is below $71.
Morgan Stanley has cut its price forecast for the physical benchmark for the next quarter by one-sixth, warning that only a restoration of flow through the Strait to 65% of pre-war levels is enough to create a supply glut.
Washington and Tehran are sending conflicting signals about the next stage of negotiations to end the war. The US says talks are expected to begin in Doha on Tuesday. At the same time, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced it would send a delegation of experts, but ruled out direct negotiations.
Tehran will continue to implement plans to control shipping traffic through the strait, said Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi. The country wants to reach an agreement with Oman on regulating shipping, but will act according to its own plan if necessary, he said on state television.
According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 35 oil and gas tankers departed the Persian Gulf through the strait on Thursday—for the first time, returning to the 30-40 vessel range typical of the period before the conflict erupted in February. Later, over the weekend, traffic slowed due to the escalation of the conflict and Iranian attacks on ships, but then accelerated again.
"Markets tend to move on short-term psychology," Eric Van Nostrand, chief investment officer at Lazard, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday. “The positive sentiment around shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which looks much better than a week ago, is causing many to speculate on a fall in oil prices.”