failing to reclaim the $65,000 level that remains in focus today.

After rebounding from early July lows near $59,000, the coin recovered throughout the month, reaching local highs above $65,000, but failed to consolidate and retreated. Bitcoin gained 2.01% over the week, lost 4.75% over the past month, and is down 20.61% over the past six months.

Fading hopes for a deal with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz put pressure on the crypto market: despite statements from the US side about the nearing agreement, no agreement was reached.

The crypto market has gone into a holding pattern ahead of the release of key US employment data. Moderate job growth is forecast compared to the previous month, although overall momentum remains weak.

The data will impact expectations for Fed interest rates: at the last meeting, the Fed expressed growing concern about persistent inflation, and Chairman Kevin Warsh gave no clear signals about his plans. Signs of labor market strength will strengthen the case for a rate hike, which would be negative for speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

We asked WarrenAI, Investing.com's smart chatbot, to analyze the 15-minute BTC/USD chart. Here are the key findings.

Technical picture

Bitcoin recently consolidated above the 200-period moving average ($64,545) and executed a bullish flag with a breakout at $64,650. However, the RSI reached 72.06, which is overbought, and the price broke above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands ($64,744), which usually precedes a quick correction to the averages. The MACD remains bullish (85.21 versus the signal level of 34.11), and volume is increasing, confirming demand. Meanwhile, the ADX at 17.01 indicates the absence of a sustainable trend—volatility is short-term.

Key levels

Support: $64,390–64,545 (200-period MA, VWAP, and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement—a breakout below invalidates the bullish scenario). Resistance: $65,032 (local high), $65,261 (next target if it consolidates above).

The $64,600–64,800 zone remains a range of uncertainty after the flag breakout—opening positions here is risky.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is in an overheating phase after a momentum rally: an overbought RSI reading and a breakout beyond the Bollinger Bands signal a possible pullback. However, momentum can drag on in the crypto market, so betting on a correction is risky. The key level is $64,390: holding it supports a bullish scenario with targets of $65,032 and $65,261. Losing this support could lead to a rapid correction. US labor market data on Friday will set the direction: a weak report will support risky assets, while a strong one will put pressure on them.