Bank of America analysts have raised their Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2026, citing persistent geopolitical tensions.
In a note dated Monday, the bank increased its forecast for the global benchmark crude—covering the final six months of the year—from $83 to $95 per barrel.
Analysts estimate that disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could reach approximately 14 million barrels per day, compared to a pre-war average of 4 to 8 million barrels per day.
Oil flows dropped after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz shortly following a joint strike on the country by the US and Israel in late February. Prior to the war, about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait.
In recent weeks, the conflict between Washington and Tehran has reached an impasse, though hopes for diplomatic progress have risen due to the UN General Assembly session taking place this week. According to media reports, Iran has even offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for reduced military pressure from the US.
Brent crude futures fell on Tuesday, dropping below the $100-per-barrel mark.
The contract had held above that level for several days, supported by signs that the conflict involving Iran was escalating into a broader regional confrontation. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and pro-Saudi forces in Yemen have clashed over territory controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—another critical chokepoint for oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, major oil producer Saudi Arabia has been forced to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to connect its oil supplies to global markets.
The situation for Riyadh has been further complicated by isolated attacks that disrupted the key East-West Pipeline, which transports energy across the country.
Nevertheless, there have been some signs of resilience in regional oil flows. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has managed to increase oil shipments via Hormuz; satellite monitoring data cited by Reuters show a sharp rise in the six-day average compared to August levels.
BofA analysts noted that while alternative routes and the use of escorted vessels through Hormuz have partially mitigated supply constraints, infrastructure damage and heightened tensions are likely to continue curbing flows. Analysts predict that if these disruptions persist into next year, front-month Brent crude futures could surge.