A year later—as of October 5, according to 24/7 Wall St. on Yahoo Finance—BTC is trading at around $86,189; this is 32% below the record and 30% lower than a year ago. To return to its peak, the price would need to rise by approximately 46%. Its market capitalization stands at roughly $1.73 trillion.

In previous cycles, recovering to the record high took at least two years. Following the peak in December 2013, the next high occurred in February 2017 (38 months later); after December 2017, it was December 2020 (36 months); and after November 2021, it was March 2024 (28 months).

Experts consider a new record before the end of 2027 unlikely: December 2027 would mark 26 months since the peak—a shorter timeframe than the fastest recovery in history. The current drawdown is notably shallower than previous ones; following the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin fell by approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively. For institutional investors who entered the market after the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024, this represents the first significant drawdown from a record high.

A year ago, sentiment was different. On October 3, 2025, the price approached $124,000, with Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Standard Chartered projecting year-end targets of $133,000, $165,000, and $200,000, respectively (TheStreet). However, following that record high, a "tariff shock" on October 10 triggered over $19 billion in liquidations—the largest in the market's history—causing October 2025 to end in the red after seven consecutive years of gains for the month (Criptolog).

The outlook has since improved. Although Bitcoin dipped to around $58,000 in late June, the third quarter saw a gain of over 40%—the best performance since 2017 and the first positive quarter following three consecutive quarters of losses (Cointelegraph). September, historically a weak month, closed with gains. Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $2.39 billion in the week leading up to September 25—the highest level since October 2025—followed by another $241 million in the week ending October 2 (Crypto.com). Immediate resistance levels stand at $87,350 (the late-September high) and $87,570 (the price at the start of 2026), while support levels are found at $83,000–$84,000 and $80,000–$81,000.

Forecasts remain positive yet cautious. On September 30, Standard Chartered reaffirmed its year-end 2026 target of $100,000—approximately 16% above the current price—with the bank's head of digital assets, Geoff Kendrick, describing the recent drop as a buying opportunity. Notably, the bank lowered its target twice—first from $300,000 to $150,000, and then to $100,000—and, as Yahoo Finance notes, missed its annual forecasts for 2023, 2024, and 2025.

October is traditionally dubbed "Uptober." According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has gained an average of 18.7% in October since 2013; the month closed in the green in 10 out of 13 instances, with the worst performance being a 13% drop in 2014. While the first three days of October are historically the weakest (averaging -0.66%), Bitcoin rose by 1.4% during this period this year. However, analysts warn that seasonality does not guarantee growth: the market faces pressure from Treasury yields (around 5.3%) and the macroeconomic backdrop, and a shock—like the one seen in 2025—could derail "Uptober."

Analysts identify US Treasury yields as the primary risk to the October rally. We asked WarrenAI 2.0—the updated version of our AI analyst—how these yields affect Bitcoin and what constitutes the strongest argument against continued growth in October.

As of 10:42 Moscow time on October 6, Bitcoin is trading near $85,472 (-0.83% intraday). The daily trading range is $84,944–$86,661. Over the past week, it has risen by 2.11%; over the month, by 6.25%; and over the last three months, by 33.43%; however, it has declined by 2.55% year-to-date. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stands at 5.286%, within a 52-week range of 3.926%–5.349%, meaning it remains near multi-year highs.