Previous article
Oil, gold, and copper prices: what’s happening in commodity markets
Economy
Commodity markets are seeing uneven gains on Thursday. Oil is rising by nearly 3%, gold is attempting to rebound from a two-month low, while copper is posting more modest gains.
Oil prices are rising by nearly 3%, supported by an increase in attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the threat of a hurricane to US production. Gold is attempting to rebound from a two-month low but is gaining only about 0.1%. Copper, which surged alongside other industrial metals following the return of Chinese traders from a week-long holiday, is now seeing more subdued growth.
Oil
As of 09:30 Moscow time, Brent crude had risen by $2.82 (2.81%) to $103.02 per barrel. US WTI crude gained $2.28 (2.58%) to reach $90.56.
The primary driver of this rise is escalating tension surrounding Middle East supplies. Last week saw the highest number of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict involving Iran; while oil continues to flow out of the region, the process entails higher costs and increased risks to cargo and crews. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker north of Qatar was struck by several projectiles on Wednesday, resulting in casualties. Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy at MST Marquee, believes that the frequency of Iranian attacks on vessels has reached a peak since the war began and is likely to rise further. According to him, prices remain high due to constrained flows of petroleum products, extreme logistics costs, and a high probability of escalation.
A restraining factor emerged recently with the IEA's decision to accelerate the release of oil stocks—prioritizing diesel—under a plan launched in March. Oil prices fell on Wednesday. ANZ analyst Daniel Hines noted that these barrels were likely already part of the original 400-million-barrel plan, meaning there would be no additional drawdown from strategic reserves. He emphasized that releasing stocks only temporarily boosts supply but does not create new production capacity.
Commodity markets are showing mixed performance on Thursday. Oil is rising by nearly 3%, supported by an increase in attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the threat hurricanes pose to US production. Gold is attempting to rebound from a two-month low but is gaining only about 0.1%. After an initial morning surge—driven by the return of Chinese traders from a week-long holiday—copper’s gains have moderated, alongside those of other industrial metals.
Prices are receiving additional support from a hurricane approaching U.S. offshore operations. Shell and Chevron have reported production cuts in the Gulf of Mexico. According to Reuters, as of Wednesday, U.S. producers had halted approximately 25.08% of current oil production and 16.37% of gas production in the region.
Prices were also bolstered by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million for the week ending October 2, exceeding the 1.7-million-barrel decline expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. Distillate stocks—including diesel and jet fuel—dropped by 42,000 barrels to 105.14 million, a level significantly below the five-year average for this time of year.
Gold
On Thursday, gold is attempting to recover from the two-month low it hit on Wednesday. As of 09:29 Moscow time, the spot price (XAU/USD) stands at $4,116.60 per ounce, up 0.14%. December gold futures remain virtually unchanged at $4,140.34. By 04:40 Moscow time, according to Reuters data, the gains had been more substantial—with spot prices rising 0.7% to $4,141.09—though the increase narrowed by morning. Support came from a weakening dollar, which retreated from an 18-month high, making the metal cheaper for holders of other currencies.
The market is weighing the prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Minutes from the September meeting reveal that committee members were divided on the justification for raising rates; some viewed it as necessary to curb the impact of energy and other price shocks, while the committee's more hawkish faction saw it as a safeguard against demand-driven inflation. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike is estimated at 18% for October and 80% for December. High interest rates diminish the appeal of gold, an asset that yields no interest.
Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, believes the short-term outlook for gold remains challenging. He notes that a move above $4,275 is required to shift sentiment in a more positive direction. Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the global economy faces threats from high energy prices, record public debt, and risks associated with the investment boom in artificial intelligence.
Among other precious metals, December silver futures are down 1.80%, trading at $59.203 per ounce. Platinum (January futures) is up 0.79% at $1,662.90, while palladium (December futures) has risen 1.13% to $1,139.75.
Copper
Copper prices rose on Thursday alongside other metals following the return of Chinese traders from a week-long holiday, though the gains had narrowed significantly by 09:30 Moscow time. Futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are up 0.19% at $14,514.85 per tonne. According to Bloomberg, the price had risen by as much as 1% to $14,617.50 by 05:22 Moscow time, and the metal appreciated during the trading session to 1.2%. Comex copper futures for December delivery are rising by 0.34% to $6.6725 per pound.
Zinc on the LME rose 0.18% to $3,770.50 per tonne, while nickel fell 1.08% to $15,508.25. Aluminum, which had gained 0.7% by 05:22 Moscow time, fell 0.82% to $3,097.15 per tonne by 09:29 Moscow time. Iron ore on the Singapore exchange was up 0.5% at $91.95 per tonne as of 05:22 Moscow time.
Copper is being supported by a strike at a key mine in Chile. Two unions at Antofagasta’s Centinela project launched the action on Wednesday, stating that it would begin to impact production in about two weeks. According to the unions, a significant portion of mining and project development work has halted, although ore feed to processing plants is continuing. Antofagasta previously stated that its production forecast remains unchanged. As Bloomberg notes, the metal continues to consolidate following last month's record high, when the threat of US tariffs on refined copper triggered an influx of supplies into the US and sparked fears of shortages in other regions. A key factor now remains demand from China—the largest copper consumer—where recent data point to industrial weakness. Other commodity futures:
Natural gas (November): 3.252, up 1.62% (09:24 Moscow time)
Heating oil (November): 4.7390, up 2.58%
RBOB gasoline (November): 3.2771, up 1.33%
TTF gas, Netherlands (November): 79.820, up 2.23% (09:14 Moscow time)
Gasoil, London (October): 1443.63, up 1.59%
US wheat (December): 684.62, down 0.27% (09:27 Moscow time)
US corn (December): 501.00, down 0.20% (09:27 Moscow time)
US soybeans (November): 1291.13, down 0.49% (09:27 Moscow time)
US soybean oil (December): 67.46, down 0.32% (09:27 Moscow time)
US soybean meal (December): 361.20, down 1.26% (09:27 Moscow time)