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IMF maintains global economic growth forecast for 2027 at 3.4%
Economy
The IMF has maintained its global economic growth forecast for 2027 at 3.4%, warning that the conflict in the Middle East and rising government debt pose threats to economic prospects.
The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%—up from the 3.0% projected in July—as investments linked to artificial intelligence helped offset rising energy costs. This forecast remains below the 3.5% growth projected for 2025.
In its latest *World Economic Outlook* report, released during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, the Fund noted that the resilience of the global economy is facing increasingly severe tests.
Investments in technology and efforts to reroute energy supplies have mitigated the impact of the Middle East conflict; however, these buffers are gradually weakening.
Spending on AI infrastructure has bolstered advanced economies and supplier nations, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand.
The United States and China account for more than three-quarters of global net import demand for chips and other AI-related equipment. Only 32 countries are expected to drive 95% of global growth—down from 54 in April—while forecasts for 47% of economies have been downgraded since April.
Oil reserves, alternative suppliers, and reduced consumption helped prevent global growth from falling to 2.5% in 2026, yet these protective factors are gradually losing their effectiveness. Artificial intelligence could trigger a sharp drop in investment and a decline in asset prices if expected returns fall short of forecasts. At the same time, faster AI adoption could boost global GDP by 0.6% by 2029. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that AI could affect approximately 40% of jobs worldwide.
The IMF projects the average oil price to reach $96 per barrel in 2026—nearly 41% above current levels—before falling to $87 in 2027. The baseline scenario assumes the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2027 and a general normalization of conditions by October of that year.
If oil prices reach $130 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, global growth would be 0.2 percentage points lower in 2026 and 0.5 points lower in 2027, while inflation would rise to 5.2% the following year. Core inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, compared to 4.1% in 2025.
High public debt, budget deficits, and borrowing costs limit governments' ability to mitigate the impact of another energy shock. The IMF urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers and stabilize debt levels, while advising central banks to clearly distinguish between temporary price spikes and persistent inflation.
Growth prospects depend largely on the restoration of energy flows and continued investment in AI; In the event of an adverse turn of events, a slowdown in growth and more persistent inflation are possible.