Recent data from the US labor market show the first signs that the adoption of artificial intelligence is putting pressure on hiring; however, the overall impact on employment remains limited.
In an analytical note dated October 22, economist Joseph Briggs observed that job growth in sectors most exposed to AI has fallen approximately 10,000 positions below the long-term trend over the past three months.
Nevertheless, an increase in job openings within the construction sector—driven by the development of AI infrastructure—has largely offset this decline.
The analysis revealed a statistically significant positive correlation between AI adoption and unemployment rates in the service sector, as well as a weaker negative correlation between the adoption of the technology and the rate of employment growth.
These findings point to emerging pressure on the labor market, though the effect has proven less pronounced than what was feared earlier this year.
Furthermore, the number of layoff announcements linked to AI has dropped sharply from the peak seen in the spring.
Looking at the long term, historical productivity trends suggest that AI could eventually cause significant disruption in the labor market.
Projections indicate that if AI boosts economy-wide productivity by 15%, approximately 9% of workers could temporarily lose their current positions during the transition.
A slowdown in hiring could exert additional pressure on employment—by roughly 3%.
Historical data show that every 1% increase in technology-driven productivity tends to temporarily raise the unemployment rate by 0.3–0.4 percentage points, with the effect dissipating after two years. An analysis of 25 professions previously affected by technological change revealed that employment in these roles declined by an average of 25% over a five-year period.
The primary driver of this job reduction was the layoff of existing employees, rather than a slowdown in the hiring of new staff.
The study also highlights the importance of the broader economic climate in determining the scale of potential disruptions.
Currently, only 23% of U.S. businesses incorporate AI into their daily operations, suggesting that the most significant impact on productivity is yet to come.
A resilient economy could allow workers to adapt gradually, whereas an economic downturn might accelerate both automation and workforce reductions.
Under a baseline economic growth scenario, analysts anticipate a gradual increase in pressure on the labor market from AI, rather than a sudden shock to employment.