U.S. intelligence considers it unlikely that Iran or the Houthis will strike first in the current phase of the Middle East conflict,
but has no doubt that they would respond immediately if the U.S. or Israel were to initiate an attack, CNN reports, citing various sources. In such a scenario, U.S. military personnel and facilities—both within the region and potentially beyond—would be at risk.
This assessment comes amid new information regarding Washington’s preparations. According to two U.S. officials, American forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially large-scale operations against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from Trump. Sufficient forces for such an undertaking are already deployed in the region.
"It would be a major effort," one of the officials told CNN.
The scope of these operations is expected to go beyond strikes on radars, missile launchers, and other Iranian assets that could be quickly repaired or replaced—a pattern seen since Trump halted full-scale hostilities earlier this year. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and the Pentagon are compiling an extensive target list, including energy infrastructure, as well as military and nuclear facilities. However, because the Iranian military is well-versed in U.S. tactics, destroying all these targets would be a more complex challenge.
Washington’s concerns are underscored by an October 23 memorandum from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
"Iran has significantly intensified its efforts to target American personnel," the document states, noting that plans for assassination attempts have "reached advanced stages in the Middle East and several other countries."
Consequently, according to a CNN source, the U.S. will continue to quietly withdraw personnel from its embassies in the region. Currently, the departure order applies only to the embassy in Riyadh, but similar directives are expected for other missions, while others will likely reduce their staff. Military support personnel, who were scheduled to deploy to the region during the next rotation, have been told to remain at home.
The timeline remains uncertain. According to current and former U.S. officials, an order could be issued at any time before the end of the year—most likely after the November 3 midterm elections—with some suggesting that it is a matter of "when," not "if." They note that while Trump has not yet made a final decision, he appears inclined toward significant action. Officials caution, however, that he has leaned toward specific measures in the past, only to pull back at the last moment. The White House declined to comment.
Israel is an additional factor. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed for further strikes against Iran, but Washington has requested that these be held off until preparations for joint operations are complete. According to an Israeli security source, Trump did not authorize a strike ahead of Israel’s elections, scheduled for Tuesday—a claim that Netanyahu’s office dismissed as "fake." As reported by CNN, Israel has deferred its plans but is preparing for potential joint operations, likely to take place after the U.S. elections.
"The plans are ready and awaiting Trump’s approval, possibly following the midterm elections," said a source familiar with the situation.
The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is also putting pressure on the markets. On Sunday, Admiral Brad Cooper, a commander at CENTCOM, surveyed the strait by helicopter; the U.S. continues to maintain a blockade of Iranian ports and provide escorts for commercial shipping. Despite an increase in the number of tankers, oil prices remain high, partly due to the threat of Iranian attacks. One official acknowledged that the current situation in the strait is “unsustainable” in the long term, which is one of the reasons why Trump might resort to the use of force.
