After a short drop into the $89,000 range, bitcoin rose above $91,000 again, into a zone formed by low liquidity and the effect of the November 17 percent correction.
December volatility is significantly lower than in November, and now we can talk about some stabilization.
The analytical report of the Bybit crypto exchange, created with the participation of Block Scholes, contains cautiously optimistic signals on cryptocurrencies.
According to Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit Learn, the crypto market is "stalling" due to many headwinds.: either the intentions of central banks are changing, or concerns about companies holding digital assets are growing. Nevertheless, there are positive trends:
• The market is showing recovery: the price of BTC has reached a two-week high, exceeding the $93,000 mark, and ETH has returned to the psychologically important level of $3,000 after a sharp sell-off in early December. Positive factors contributed to the recovery, including Vanguard's decision to open its platform for trading cryptocurrency ETFs and mutual funds.
• Option traders have become less afraid of falling, and bearish positions have noticeably decreased. The difference in premiums between put and call options dropped from 10-13 percentage points at the beginning of the month to the current 2-4 percentage points. In other words, insurance against a sharp market collapse is now much cheaper than it was a week ago.
• Restrained activity using leverage: the amount of open positions on perpetual contracts increased moderately against the background of the market recovery, but remains significantly below the levels observed before October 10, 2025. The data indicate a decrease in participants' involvement in leveraged positions; however, recent sales were not accompanied by cascading liquidations typical of over-leveraged markets.
• Sentiment is improving: The Block Scholes risk appetite index indicates a slight increase in sentiment, but bullish optimism is still far away. This is logical, because bitcoin and ETH are still holding noticeably below record levels.
• The Block Scholes Risk Appetite Index measures the level of euphoria (values above 1) or panic (values below -1) in the spot market. The dynamics of this index demonstrates a close relationship with spot returns.
Jimmy Xue, COO and co—founder of Axis, also believes that the latest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve is a classic case of expectations colliding with reality.:
• The market received the desired rate cut, but did not receive the necessary guidance to maintain the rally.
• The 97% rate cut has already been taken into account in the forecast markets, including Polymarket, and investors simply did what traders do when surprises do not materialize — they reduced leverage.
• The reduction in leverage in October made the order books vulnerable, and when selling pressure appeared, the market simply collapsed. In addition, Xue believes that bitcoin's drop below $90,000 was caused not so much by bearish emotions as by low liquidity.
• I'm leaning towards a period of stabilization and fluctuations rather than an immediate V-shaped bounce. The market needs time to get over the recent volatility. However, the medium—term outlook for the first quarter of 2026 remains optimistic, as lower interest rates will eventually lead to increased global liquidity, and institutional investments will be redistributed in January, Xue concluded.