Bitcoin tests $75,000 amid US optimism - Bitcoin rose on Friday, extending its recovery to levels last seen in late May after US President Donald Trump called on lawmakers to enact clear regulations for cryptocurrencies.
Regular news, not macro, is driving Bitcoin's rise - Bitcoin's rise to $75,000, according to Citi analysts, was driven more by positive regulatory changes in the US than by "macroeconomic concerns about currency depreciation."
UBS raised its S&P 500 earnings forecast and index targets in a research note this week, citing a stronger earnings outlook and growing confidence that growth will continue into next year.
The bank now expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $350 in 2026 and $400 in 2027, up from its previous estimates of $335 and $375, representing growth of 25% and 14%, respectively. It raised its S&P 500 targets to $8,100 for December 2026 and to $8,400 for June 2027.
Strategists led by David Lefkowitz said the upward revision was primarily driven by stronger-than-expected earnings in semiconductors, hardware, and energy, although earnings forecasts were raised slightly across almost all market segments.
UBS noted that the rally is broadening amid an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season and improving conditions in more cyclical sectors of the economy, including manufacturing activity and construction employment growth.
The bank highlighted three key factors supporting its positive outlook: robust economic growth, a patient Federal Reserve, and accelerated AI adoption.
It expects inflation to decline in the second half of the year as the impact of tariffs fades, supporting its view that the Federal Reserve will remain on a wait-and-see basis. "We do not believe the Federal Reserve will pull the punch (stop stimulating)," UBS wrote. Risks include a sustained rise in oil prices, a resurgence of inflation, or evidence that AI investments are yielding lower returns than expected. His bearish scenario projects the index at 5,500 by June 2027, compared to 9,500 in the bullish scenario.