Following a sharp sell-off last week, Bitcoin may continue to decline;
escalating geopolitical tensions, concerns regarding an artificial intelligence market bubble, and a contraction in global liquidity are dampening risk appetite, according to a report by the investment firm Hilbert Group.
The sell-off has highlighted Bitcoin’s vulnerability to shifts in the macroeconomic landscape: rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and concerns over inflated valuations for technology companies are undermining investor interest in risk assets. With a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on the horizon, traders are watching to see whether tightening liquidity and persistent inflation will lead to further losses in the digital asset market.
Bitcoin fell by 5.4% after reaching $84,800 early last week, marking five consecutive days of declines and briefly dipping below $80,000—hitting a weekly low of $79,200 over the weekend. Jesse Marre, a senior portfolio manager at Hilbert, identified the $75,500 level as a critical threshold, warning that a breach could undermine the market’s bullish foundation, which had been building since the lows seen over the summer.
The weakness in cryptocurrencies has coincided with a broader retreat in risk assets. Heightened tensions surrounding Iran have pushed Brent crude oil prices toward $117 per barrel, amid speculation regarding a potential U.S. military strike. However, oil prices retreated following a statement by U.S. President Donald Trump that no immediate strike was planned, though they remained at an elevated level.
Technology stocks also came under pressure as investors reassessed the valuations of companies in the artificial intelligence sector. Over the week, Nvidia shares fell by 8%, while Meta Platforms shares dropped by 9%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost approximately 2%—after falling by about 3.6% at one point during the week—and the S&P 500 declined by 1%, according to a market review by Hilbert dated October 26, 2025.
Bitcoin is currently testing technical support in the $78,500–$79,500 range. A recovery above $81,400 could help stabilize the situation in the short term, while clearing the $85,000 and $87,500 levels would be necessary to strengthen the outlook for further growth. A sustained breakout above $87,500 could pave the way toward the $95,000–$98,000 range, noted Marre.
Reduced liquidity is intensifying pressure on digital assets. The Hilbert Global Liquidity Index stood at 3.06, and the firm’s six-factor model recorded a weekly decline of 0.47 in the Z-score, signaling a deterioration in liquidity dynamics.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a net inflow of $442 million for the week, despite an outflow of $635 million on Thursday alone. According to the report, this trend suggests that fund inflows largely followed price movements in the spot market, rather than driving them.
Market attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, due on Wednesday; markets are pricing in an 87% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged. Marre anticipates a "hawkish pause"—he believes the regulator will leave the door open for a potential rate hike in December, given persistent inflation and steady economic growth.
Investors will also be looking at data on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and U.S. GDP, due Thursday, as well as the Chicago PMI on Friday. These releases could influence expectations regarding monetary policy and determine whether pressure on risk assets will persist.