Bitcoin’s rally above $87,000 has lost momentum, with the price pulling back to $80,000—leaving investors wondering why.
On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end are currently pegged at just 17%, while the probability of hitting $110,000 stands at 9%.
A primary explanation is that investors are selling into the rally to break even or lock in profits from previous purchases. Those who bought over the last two years are reaching their break-even point at price levels of $87,000 and above.
"They have been responsible for two major reversals in Bitcoin this year," note researchers at Glassnode.
Following these instances, the price of Bitcoin has typically fallen by 25% or more.
Bitcoin is also highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors; its price is influenced by inflation data and developments surrounding the conflict involving Iran. In mid-October, its correlation with the stock market reached its highest level since late May. A basket of stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom has shed 15% since the beginning of the month—its worst performance since July—while Bitcoin itself lost nearly 4% in October, marking its weakest month since June.
"Bitcoin remains a 'beta' play on the tech sector; consequently, valuation concerns surrounding AI and anxieties regarding debt have pushed it back toward the middle of its trading range," said Jeff Anderson, head of the U.S. division at STS Digital.
For several weeks, analysts at Glassnode have pointed to a "sandwich" of resistance levels—including $81,500, which the firm estimates to be the average entry price for holders of Bitcoin ETFs. A close below this level would leave the average ETF holder at a loss and remove the "nearest on-chain support."
"I would be a bit cautious right now. I’m not yet convinced that this is the start of a new bull market," said Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack.
Not everyone is certain that Bitcoin is in a bull market at all. Gracy Chen, head of Bitget, does not see a clear-cut bull run, noting that many observers struggle to explain the coin's movements—for instance, a Federal Reserve rate hike did not cause a Bitcoin crash, as might have happened in the past.
"It’s really hard to predict. To be more convincing, we need a longer-term trend rather than a wide range of fluctuations," she said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
What does the technical analysis of Bitcoin show?
As of 08:32 Moscow time on October 28, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $80,940 (+1.19% over the last 24 hours); it is down 3.75% for the week and 3.09% for the month. The price remains below both the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, suggesting that the coming days will likely be a struggle for a specific range rather than a confirmed reversal.
In the short term, the outlook is neutral-to-weak. The daily RSI(14) is around 45.7, meaning the asset is not oversold. The MACD remains in negative territory (at approximately -450, with the signal line near -195), and the histogram is also negative, indicating that selling momentum persists. The weekly picture is more constructive: the weekly RSI stands at 56.75, the ADX is at 25.01, and the weekly MACD is positive. While the daily chart shows a correction, the broader structure on the weekly timeframe remains intact. Key levels:
* Support: $79,300–$79,900 (recent low zone; on October 24, the price dipped to $79,283)
* Critical support: $78,781 (daily S2), with further support near $78,000
* Initial resistance: $81,765–$81,945 (daily 20-period EMA and 50-period SMA)
* Next resistance: $82,337 (daily R2)
* Stronger resistance zone: $83,400–$85,000 (daily R3 and an area of previous failed breakout attempts)
As long as the price remains below the $81,765–$81,945 range, any rebound is considered purely technical; a close above this zone would mark the first significant improvement.
Two scenarios:
* Bullish: Holding the $79,300–$79,900 level and reclaiming the area above $81,945 would open the path toward $82,337 and subsequently $83,400; a more sustained recovery would require establishing a position above $85,000.
* Bearish: Losing the $79,300 level increases the likelihood of a move toward $78,781 and then $78,000; a breakdown below $78,000 would signal that the current correction is deepening.
Potential price drivers:
* The Federal Reserve and the US Dollar: The Fed meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. While the market anticipates a pause, any hawkish rhetoric could strengthen the dollar and bond yields, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
* US macroeconomic data. On October 29 (Thursday, 15:30 Moscow time), data on Q3 GDP and the September PCE inflation index will be released: softer figures would support risk appetite, while strong numbers would fuel expectations for further interest rate hikes.
* Technology and oil. A sell-off in tech stocks, Brent crude hovering near $111, and geopolitical risks are dampening risk appetite.
* Options. The expiration of Bitcoin options is scheduled for October 30, which could trigger a sharp spike in volatility should the price break out of its current range.
The base-case scenario for the coming days is a trading range of $79,300–$82,337, with an elevated risk of sharp price swings surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision and the release of macroeconomic data. The key test for buyers is a return above $81,945, while a drop below $79,300 would serve as a primary signal of weakness.