Wall Street forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share of approximately $306 in 2026, 12.5% above the current consensus estimate of $272.
According to recent Bloomberg data, the average target for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026 among major investment strategists is 7,555. The range ranges from a low of 7,000 to a high of 8,100, implying upside potential of 9% from current levels.
Some forecasts are slightly above consensus, with projections around 7,700, implying a gain of close to 11%. While the outlook is generally positive, strategists caution that the first half of 2026 could bring a correction if bond yields rise sharply, especially amid concerns that monetary and fiscal policies could prove overly stimulative.
Earnings expectations underlie much of this optimism. Wall Street forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share of approximately $306 in 2026, 12.5% above the current consensus estimate of $272. Valuations remain relatively stable, with the forward P/E multiple expected to remain at its current level of around 22x by the end of next year.
Goldman Sachs analysts point to strong US economic growth, a weaker dollar, and productivity gains from artificial intelligence as key factors supporting earnings growth.
"Beyond macro drivers, the performance of the largest stocks will remain a key driver of S&P 500 earnings growth," they argue, adding that revenue from the seven largest stocks in the index—Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta (designated an extremist organization and banned in Russia)—accounts for approximately a quarter of total earnings.
The investment bank forecasts earnings per share of approximately $305 in 2026, along with 7% revenue growth and modest margin expansion. Much of this growth is expected to come from the largest tech companies, which already account for approximately a quarter of the index's total profits and are projected to deliver significant earnings growth as AI investments further scale.
Taken together, these assumptions create a consensus view that the market's upward momentum could continue through 2026, even if the path to that point proves bumpy.
The bank's strategists added that "the continued strength of AI investments, along with healthy growth in other sectors, will support approximately +20% sales growth for these stocks in 2026."
The S&P 500 closed the week at $6,929.94.