President Trump has made housing policy a political priority ahead of the midterm elections.
According to TD Cowen, the White House is now targeting institutional landlords, access to down payments, and mortgage fees as part of a broader housing affordability agenda. Analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote that "President Trump is addressing housing ahead of the midterm elections," with more details expected when he speaks in Davos in two weeks.
TD Cowen noted that Trump intends to "block institutional investors from buying more single-family rental homes" and allow buyers to use tax-advantaged 529 and 401(k) accounts for down payments without penalties.
The administration is also expected to push for lower Federal Housing Administration insurance premiums and a reduction in "loan-level price adjustments" at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Seiberg believes Trump will likely pressure local governments to change zoning regulations, although he noted that TD Cowen "doubts this will lead to changes, as zoning is a local issue."
The analyst added that FHFA Director Bill Pulte may follow this with a closer scrutiny of mortgage costs, creating potential risks for mortgage insurers, title insurers, and credit bureaus.
TD Cowen argues that the measures being discussed could represent a "temporary solution to housing affordability," warning that they could "reignite housing inflation."
The firm believes the real solution lies in increasing supply, calling the Workforce Housing Tax Credit "the best option" that could subsidize entry-level home construction.
Congress is already close to passing a bill supporting manufactured housing and zoning reform, which TD Cowen believes could serve as a legislative tool for broader changes.