Geopolitical risks returned to the oil market after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, sparking renewed attention to the country's vast oil reserves and the prospects for its struggling energy sector.

However, ANZ believes that Venezuela's oil industry has been devastated by years of mismanagement, underinvestment, and sanctions, sharply limiting its ability to influence the global balance. According to the bank, a smooth political transition—considered the least likely outcome—could lead to a rapid lifting of US sanctions, allowing exports to increase by more than 200,000 barrels per day to pre-embargo levels of approximately 900,000 barrels per day.

Even in this scenario, ANZ believes the additional supply would be modest in the context of the global market and would lead to only a limited decline in oil prices.

A more likely scenario is increased political instability, which would keep the risk of supply disruptions high in the short term, ANZ said.

Venezuela's oil production has fallen sharply from approximately 2.3 million barrels per day in 2015, reflecting a collapse in investment and aging infrastructure, with recent spending well below the levels needed to even maintain current production levels, analysts say. ANZ noted that any significant recovery in production would require significant capital investment and long development periods, meaning that production increases are unlikely before the end of the decade, even under favorable conditions.

ANZ added that past US interventions in oil-producing countries have typically resulted in temporary supply disruptions rather than rapid production growth.

ANZ stated that the situation in Venezuela will likely support a short-term geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, thereby triggering a lasting shift in global supply dynamics.