Bernstein warning that several powerful growth drivers may already be largely reflected in the metal's dramatic multi-year rally.

Analyst Bob Brackett said the firm "forecasts gold at $4,180 per ounce in 2026," citing support from "continued central bank purchases... as reserves diversify away from the U.S. dollar."

He added that "inflows into gold ETFs have accelerated in 2025... reflecting growing interest from both institutional and retail investors," while an expected Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 "should also support gold prices."

Bernstein emphasized gold's unusual resilience in the face of rising real rates. The firm noted that real rates have risen more than 3% over the past four years, while gold has jumped 135%, calling this "an anomaly, as gold typically has a negative correlation with real rates."

While the relationship between TIPS and gold appears to have weakened, Bernstein argues that it "still exists, albeit not linearly," with safe-haven flows, central bank purchases, and "currency depreciation trading" contributing to a structural revaluation from 2023 onward.

Despite strong underlying demand, Bernstein suggests that upside potential may be limited. Global central bank purchases slowed in the first nine months of 2025, and while ETF inflows have offset the decline, the firm noted that ETF flows are a "procyclical force" capable of amplifying both rallies and pullbacks. Bernstein also warned that the market "has a history of mispricing Fed rates," a key variable for gold.

Nevertheless, the firm reiterated its Outperform rating for Barrick, stating that this remains its preferred way to express a constructive view on the metal.