Bitcoin's recent rebound has improved short-term technical conditions, but one analyst warns that the broader picture suggests the cryptocurrency is still in danger zone.
After falling below $90,000 last week, Bitcoin has recovered more than 7%, returning above its 50-day moving average for the first time since its October peak.
Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg called this a "good sign" for short-term momentum and sees scope for a continued rally toward the 200-day moving average near $105,000. He points to this level as the next key test for price, "and this bounce will likely take a breather there."
The recent move should be viewed as a rebound, not the start of a new bull run. Bitcoin is already overbought for the first time since its October high, and Ginsberg notes that recent market action doesn't indicate investors are seeking more risk.
"While this rebound could well continue for another week or so, we don't believe the market is ready to race again," the analyst wrote.
The world's largest cryptocurrency has begun 2026 as an underperformer relative to altcoins, which have rebounded sharply after last year's strong selloff.
"Bitcoin is just beginning to see a reversal in momentum relative to altcoins," Ginsberg said.
Longer term, the analyst argues that the four-year cycle remains intact until a new high is reached, emphasizing that Bitcoin historically peaks after approximately 530 days in each cycle, with the October high marking approximately 535 days.