According to the latest Alpha report from Bitfinex, bitcoin failed to stay above the resistance level of $95,000–98,000, after which it returned to its established trading range.
The correction offset all the growth since the beginning of the year and lowered prices below the opening level of the year, highlighting the delicate balance between buyers and sellers.
The correction coincided with sustained pressure from American spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past week, the total outflow of funds from ETFs has exceeded $1.3 billion. Analysts said the scale and stability of these outflows point to coordinated risk reduction rather than the usual rotation of funds.
In the absence of renewed inflows of funds into ETFs, growth attempts will be unsuccessful, Bitfinex analysts wrote, adding that institutional demand has "significantly decreased at current price levels."
Network data shows that downward movements continue to find buyers, and upward growth "constantly meets the distribution of funds from buyers of the previous cycle," especially from those who accumulated funds during the first three quarters of 2025.
However, the position on derivatives remains relatively orderly. After bitcoin's January high, open interest in perpetual contracts decreased by more than 4%, or by $1.18 billion in nominal terms. Analysts called this change positive from the point of view of the market structure, even despite the decrease in activity in the spot market.
The options markets show a similar but more complex picture. The implied volatility of weekly options "in the money" jumped by more than 13 points after the recent sell-off, while the implied volatility of three-month options increased only slightly. This increase in steepness in the near part of the curve indicates tactical hedging rather than widespread repositioning.
After returning to the established range of $85,000—$94,500, stronger spot demand is needed to support a sustained breakout, the analysts added.
At the moment, the market is in standby mode: sellers are active, buyers are selective.