Long—term holders are reducing positions to protect previously earned profits, and new capital is reluctant to enter the market - this increases selling pressure, reminiscent of past recessions and giving investors panic attacks.

However, there are important differences from previous cycles — the use of cryptocurrencies by corporate investors, the influx of funds into regulated products, as well as the easing of monetary policy in the United States, the analyst listed. He noted billions of dollars in investment in exchange-traded crypto products, increased access to advisory services, and the launch of cryptocurrency-related services by banks.

Lunde named the indicators that are usually associated with the formation of a market bottom. On February 2, bitcoin's trading volume reached over $8 billion, and the price returned to the lows of 2025. At the same time, open interest and financing rates in the derivatives markets fell to extremely negative values, and the wave of liquidations of long positions amounted to about $1.8 billion. In the past, this combination often preceded a trend reversal, says Lunde.

"Over the past two years, bitcoin has demonstrated almost zero returns, and we do not see an urgent need for long-term holders to sell. Bitcoin has lost about 40% since its October peak. In the past week alone, the asset has fallen in price by 11% amid an increase in global risk aversion. We consider the current prices as attractive for investors who adhere to a long—term strategy to enter the market," said the K33 analyst.

The expert named the area around $74,000 as a critical support level. A breakdown below this mark may accelerate the decline: first to the November 2021 peak (around $69,000), and then to the 200-week moving average at $58,000.

A new historical maximum of bitcoin may be recorded as early as the end of 2026, suggested Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise. The main condition is the return of retail investors to the market.