To substantiate the forecast, analysts have compiled a chart showing the minimum points of all major bitcoin collapses since 2010. Stifel calculated:

• in 2011, the first cryptocurrency lost 93% of its value;

• in 2015 — 84%;

• in 2018 — 83%;

• in 2022 - 76%.

If you draw a line through these low points of market declines, it will point upward and point to the $38,000 mark as the likely minimum for a new decline.

The previously fixed limit of 21 million coins made the cryptocurrency stronger against the background of the weakening of the dollar caused by the monetary issue. Until 2025, there was a clear pattern: bitcoin grew when the dollar weakened and the global money supply (M2) increased. Experts called it "aging on the contrary," that is, a situation similar to the life of a full-bodied Button in the body of an old man.

But since 2025, the relationship has turned upside down: now bitcoin is falling at the same time as the dollar, resembling a Button that looks like a child (that is, it is a young currency), but behaves like an 80—year-old man - that is, like old, familiar fiat money. the Stifel experts explained.

Analysts pointed to another sign of BTC's "old age" — bitcoin's close relationship with the Nasdaq 100 exchange technology index. The dynamics of the index directly depends on the signals of the US Federal Reserve System, experts announced. According to them, the Nasdaq 100 grows when the regulator adheres to a soft monetary policy, and falls when it is tightened. If financial conditions do not soften, this will negatively affect the valuation of stocks and further increase pressure on the bitcoin market, experts believe.

Bitcoin is unlikely to fall in price by 80%, as in 2018 and 2022, analysts at K33 suggested. The main reason, in their opinion, is that there is now a large proportion of large corporate investors in the market who are in no hurry to sell off their bitcoin reserves.