US tariff revenues have declined over the past few months, raising questions about whether import demand is finally beginning to adapt to elevated trade barriers.
Since October, tariffs collected by the Treasury have fallen by about 11%, according to both monthly Treasury data and daily Department of Homeland Security deposit data, which closely correlate with official figures.
At the peak in October, the US was collecting about $376 billion in tariff revenue year-over-year, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn noted in a research note. By the end of January, this pace had slowed to about $335 billion.
However, Kapteyn cautions against interpreting this decline as a clear sign of weakening trade activity.
Seasonal factors likely play a significant role, the economist points out. Imports are typically lower in December and January, as retailers typically complete most of their holiday inventory restocking earlier in the year. To account for this, Kapteyn examined duties as a share of estimated imports—the effective tariff rate—which shows a much less pronounced decline than the underlying revenue indicators.
Recent US trade data has also been volatile, rather than indicating a sustained slowdown, with sharp fluctuations in the trade deficit as import volumes recovered in some months, particularly in capital goods, after a previous contraction.
Changes in tariff policy have also impacted duties, Kapteyn noted. In November, the IEEPA tariff rate on fentanyl-related goods from China was reduced by 10 percentage points, from 20% to 10%.
Kapteyn stated that this move alone "could be worth about 1 percentage point in the effective tariff rate," and that additional minor waivers granted to other countries contribute further.
Meanwhile, port activity showed a noticeable weakening in late 2025, with cargo volumes declining at major US hubs, and logistics executives are pointing to the impact of tariffs and challenges with seasonal shipping patterns.
The combined effect of seasonal import slowdowns and lower posted rates complicates the recent revenue picture. Although customs revenues have clearly declined from their October highs, Kapteyn emphasized that the data do not yet indicate a demand-driven decline in imports.
"Given all this, it remains to be seen whether tariff collections are declining in response to weakening import demand," the economist concluded.