What we are seeing is the weakest downside scenario for Bitcoin in its history, wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani in a note to clients.

They believe the recent price decline reflects a temporary crisis of confidence, not a failure in the underlying system. Therefore, they maintained their Bitcoin price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026.

The analysts noted that none of the typical catalysts for past Bitcoin declines have materialized, but they also cited strong institutional support, the expansion of Bitcoin ETFs, and the growing participation of corporate treasuries as evidence that the current cycle is fundamentally different from previous bear markets.

Bernstein added that Bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, but not as a safe haven. Tightening financial conditions and rising interest rates have currently concentrated gains in precious metals and AI-related stocks.

At the same time, the experts refuted claims that Bitcoin is losing its relevance in an AI-driven economy. They believe that programmable wallets are suitable for the emerging "agent-based" digital environment, where autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial channels. Blockchains offer advantages over traditional banking infrastructure, which remains limited by closed APIs and the challenges of integrating legacy systems.

Furthermore, they assessed the risks associated with quantum computing, without acknowledging Bitcoin as uniquely vulnerable. All critical digital systems face similar challenges and will transition to quantum-resistant standards.

Taking into account the accumulation of bitcoin in treasury assets at various companies, including Strategy, they concluded that the risk of forced selling has significantly decreased. Accordingly, the current decline does not threaten Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.