Analysts led by Irene Himona expect the conflict to "immediately add a risk premium of $5-$10 per barrel to oil prices," reflecting the threat of a major supply shock resulting from Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. Given that approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes through this chokepoint, the duration of any disruption becomes critical.

Bernstein is modeling three war scenarios based on a complete closure of the Strait, lasting one, three, or six months. With a limited disruption of one to three months, the broker's previous forecast of a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2026 would turn into an average deficit of about 1.8 mbd, implying roughly $80 per barrel of Brent crude, compared with a base case of $65, while the European TTF gas benchmark would rise from $10 to $15 million British thermal units (mmBTU).

In the most severe case, a six-month closure would result in "by far the worst" outcome, the analysts emphasized, with an implied deficit of 5.6 mbd and Brent rising above $110 per barrel—a level they say is approaching recessionary territory.

"Given that OPEC spare capacity stands at around 3.0 mbd, a six-month closure scenario could have potentially severe implications for the global economy," they wrote. Even physical logistics highlight the risk. Pipeline routes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE could bypass only a small portion of Hormuz's volumes, while spare capacity of less than 3 mbd covers approximately 15% of flows through the strait.

Using an average Brent scenario of $80, Bernstein estimates that discounted cash flows (DCFs) will increase by approximately 10-11% for major European integrated oil companies, while more production-focused companies could see a more significant increase in valuations.

However, analysts warn that major oil companies also face "high-risk" volume exposure in the Middle East, meaning higher prices will not fully translate into profit growth if regional production is disrupted.