The spot metal is no longer as volatile, but it is also refraining from testing the $5,000 per ounce mark.
After a disappointing March, gold prices have been relatively calm this month.
With the focus on the Middle East and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market has taken center stage.
At the same time, the fundamental demand for gold, the main defensive asset, has not disappeared. According to UBS estimates, physical gold itself remains a favorite among commodities, although gold mining stocks, which have fallen by 20% since the escalation in the Middle East, are unlikely to show explosive growth in profits.
In the coming days, the yellow metal, as well as other markets, will continue to monitor developments around Iran, especially Trump's statements. Additionally, economic news from the United States and statements from Federal Reserve officials may influence gold prices through the dynamics of the dollar.
As the analysis of the XAU/USD chart showed, the technical picture reflects the current indecision of investors. The quotes are stuck in the "dead zone" around $4,800, balancing between a local upward impulse and a strong global resistance.
The chart shows a classic battle of trends:
Bullish arguments: The MACD indicator has formed a bullish crossover, indicating an increasing positive momentum. Since the end of March, the asset has been forming a structure of rising lows (from $4,098 to $4,644), which is often a sign of a local bottom.
Bearish arguments: the medium-term trend remains negative. The price has settled below key moving averages (20- and 50-day), and the SuperTrend indicator is confidently signaling sales. The quotes are being pressured from above by a heavy Ichimoku cloud (range $4,760-$4,952), acting as a viscous resistance.
At the same time, technical analysis on most timeframes, including daily, signals to buy.
Under the current conditions, the range from $4,700 to $4,850 is regarded as an "out of trading" zone due to an unfavorable risk-reward ratio. Attempts to guess the direction of movement within this range are dangerous.
In order for gold to continue growing confidently, it needs to break through the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and consolidate above the $4,955 mark. This scenario would pave the way for gold to reach the psychological level of $5,000 and beyond.
However, in the basic, conservative scenario, there is a high probability that the asset will not be able to overcome the resistance and will decline back to the support levels of $4,600 or even $4,400 after testing the $4,910 zone.
Without the involvement of technical factors, any positive developments and statements surrounding Iran could put pressure on the protective metal in the coming days.