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Analyst: Bitcoin bull market has begun, target is $250,000.
Сryptocurrency
Brokerage firm U.S. Tiger Securities stated that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market phase,
maintaining a "Buy" rating and setting a cycle price target of $250,000, to be reached by 2029 or sooner.
Analyst Bo Pei noted that the trend shift is supported by the formation of higher lows and highs, as well as a recovery above key investor cost-basis levels—factors that prompted a revision of the firm's earlier assessment from July, which had characterized the market as being in the "late stage of a bear market." According to Pei, the resumption of ETF buying "serves as further evidence that demand is recovering alongside the price."
Pei pointed out that anticipated regulatory hurdles failed to break Bitcoin's upward trend. The failure to pass the Clarity Act and the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point interest rate hike had largely been priced in beforehand. Bitcoin declined 5.9% during a week packed with political events, and its low point in the 24 hours following the Fed's decision was just 1.0% below the pre-announcement level. The subsequent recovery allowed Bitcoin to surpass its May high of $82,814, marking a 49.1% gain from its July low.
The recovery of the cost-basis level in September coincided with renewed demand for exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin briefly dipped below the "true market mean" in the $76,000–$77,000 range but held above the short-term holder cost-basis level before recovering above both benchmarks. ETFs attracted $4.20 billion in net inflows between August 17 and September 21, offsetting the $8.42 billion in outflows recorded over eight consecutive weeks from May to early July. Peh noted that the $937.3 million inflow on September 21 marked the largest single-day figure since the cycle peak in October 2025.
Commenting on the macroeconomic backdrop, the analyst pointed out that a limited rate-hiking cycle does not alter the long-term fiscal thesis: persistent budget deficits and rising refinancing costs heighten the incentive to contain government borrowing costs, thereby supporting Bitcoin’s "monetary premium."
The $250,000 target combines a valuation benchmark based on gold with a cross-check against on-chain cost-basis metrics. Based on a terminal supply of 21 million coins, the target implies a network value of $5.25 trillion—equivalent to 16.9% of gold’s estimated market capitalization—placing it near the lower end of the firm’s initial 15%–25% range.
Peh noted that a 20%–30% rise in the price of gold would lower this implied ratio to 13.0%–14.1%; consequently, further appreciation in gold could support the target level without requiring such a significant reallocation of assets into Bitcoin.
The growth required to reach the target is more modest than in previous cycles, the analyst added: the cost-basis level would need to reach $147,000–$167,000, implying a compound annual growth rate of 24%–29% over three years—below the roughly 39% rate observed following the recovery signal in April 2023.