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Bitcoin Will Benefit from the Collapse of the AI Boom — Arthur Hayes
Сryptocurrency
Humanity is "wasting many trillions of dollars" building data centers for artificial intelligence,
according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. He believes the AI boom will ultimately lead to a familiar scenario: overinvestment, a crash, and bailout measures that will drive up cryptocurrency prices, CNBC reports.
Hayes, co-founder and chief investment officer of the crypto investment firm Maelstrom, made these remarks while speaking at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore.
According to Hayes, the massive construction of data centers will eventually make computing power "extremely cheap and extremely accessible."
This view runs counter to the current trend of massive investment in AI infrastructure. Tech companies are racing to secure the computing power needed to develop and run increasingly advanced models. Hayes believes that, over time, this build-out will result in a capacity glut, setting the stage for a downturn that will ultimately benefit cryptocurrencies.
"If you look at financial history and every major technological adoption cycle, too much capacity is always built. There is always a crash, and bailouts always follow," Hayes said.
Investors who position themselves ahead of such measures stand to gain, he noted, citing the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and other episodes from the past two decades.
"Fortunately, we have Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to absorb the excess liquidity, so we know which asset will perform best when the bailouts begin," Hayes said.
"You just have to be patient," he added. Hayes noted that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are among the end-users driving demand for computing power, yet none of these companies are profitable. Once the data centers currently under construction are completed, infrastructure providers will demand payment for the capacity these companies have committed to purchasing. Hayes estimates this could happen in late 2027 or 2028, when a significant portion of the new capacity comes online.
According to Hayes, an optimistic scenario envisions AI becoming "so useful" within the next 12 months that demand surges enough for companies in the sector to turn a profit.
Some suppliers fueling the AI boom are already profitable, Hayes noted, pointing to memory chip manufacturers and Nvidia. The question for investors is whether they are paying an appropriate multiple for these companies' future earnings.
At the same time, Hayes dislikes betting against AI companies or opening short positions on their stocks, calling it "not the best investment opportunity."
A surplus of computing power also underpins Hayes's new crypto project. Flop, a payment project for AI agents, is slated for launch in the first quarter of 2027. Hayes believes that cheaper, more accessible computing power will pave the way for the widespread adoption of AI agents.
Flop aims to create a spot market for computing power where participants earn Flop tokens for providing GPU resources and performing AI inference. According to Hayes, a dedicated payment network for AI agents does not yet exist.
"If agents can convert currency directly into the computing power that fuels and sustains them, they will use that currency," Hayes said. "That is the bet we are making."