Commodity markets saw mixed trading on Thursday following data showing an acceleration in US inflation.
Consumer prices in September rose at their fastest pace in five months—exceeding forecasts—which fueled expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Oil prices are declining amid reports that the US may ease sanctions on the "shadow fleet," while gold has rebounded from a one-week low as the dollar weakens. Copper, meanwhile, has fallen for the third consecutive day amid a broader market sell-off.
Oil
As of 09:02 Moscow time, Brent crude was down 1.49% at $104.48 per barrel, while US WTI crude had fallen 1.01% to $94.13. Over the week, Brent has gained 0.19%, and WTI has risen 2.87%.
Downward pressure on prices stems from potential US moves to facilitate oil transport; according to a US official, the administration is considering easing sanctions on "shadow fleet" vessels that carry oil and petroleum products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Furthermore, rising production is weighing on prices: the IEA reports that Russia increased output by 65,000 barrels per day in September, while exports from Persian Gulf nations rose by 4.4 million barrels per day, reaching approximately 75% of pre-war levels.
However, the decline is being tempered by attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past 24 hours, a container ship and a bulk carrier sank after being struck by projectiles; Iran has stated that it is intensifying its strikes in response to the blockade of its ports and the imposition of sanctions. On Wednesday, WTI rose to a three-week high following a Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco. According to API data, U.S. oil inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels over the week, but prices showed almost no reaction.
Gold
Gold is rebounding from the low it reached on Wednesday—its lowest level since October 7. The spot price (XAU/USD) is up 0.74% at $4,135.72 per ounce, while December futures have risen 1.18% to $4,156.40. The metal is finding support from a weakening dollar, which had climbed to an 18-month high just the previous evening.
Following strong inflation data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October has increased from 22% to 29%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that while interest rates will likely need to rise, such a move is not necessary at the upcoming October 27–28 meeting. Analyst Kyle Rodda suggests that if incoming data remains strong, the level just below $4,000 will become a key threshold for gold. Today at 15:30 Moscow time, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales figures are set to be released.
Silver is up 0.43% at $56.12 per ounce, though it has lost 5.56% over the week. Platinum is down 0.32% at $1,609.50, while palladium has gained 1.14% to reach $1,109.00.
Copper
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper is down 1.10% at $14,328.50 per tonne, and Comex futures have fallen 1.56% to $6.5563 per pound. If the metal ends the day in the red, it will mark its third consecutive decline—the longest such streak since June. Strong inflation data has increased the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which dampen demand for metals and drive up production costs. Market sell-offs have added further pressure: tech stocks are falling amid concerns over the sustainability of artificial intelligence spending, while South Korea’s benchmark index dropped by 8%. Aluminum has fallen to its lowest level since last year. Copper, however, has risen by more than 15% year-to-date, as massive volumes of the metal were shipped to the U.S. in anticipation of potential import tariffs.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures in Singapore have fallen below $90 per ton—reaching $89.75—marking their lowest level since September 2024. Year-to-date, the price of iron ore has declined by approximately 15%. Demand is being weighed down by a weak construction sector in China; the country’s steel output for the first eight months of the year was at its lowest level since 2018. Meanwhile, supply remains high, partly due to the launch of the Simandou mine in Guinea. Analysts at Chaos Ternary Futures expect prices to remain range-bound with a downward bias, as steel mills still have room to further reduce production.
Lithium
Chinese lithium futures continue to decline; the most actively traded contract on the Guangzhou exchange briefly dipped below 100,000 yuan ($14,942) per ton. Lithium prices have fallen by approximately 14% over the past week and by 37% over the last seven weeks. An additional blow came from an agreement between the EU and China to limit the export of hybrid vehicles into the bloc. Last week, Goldman Sachs stated that the lithium market would shift from a deficit to a balanced state in the fourth quarter, with a surplus expected over the next two years.
Other commodity futures:
* Natural gas (November): 3.247, up 1.47%
* Heating oil (November): 4.8623, down 1.37%
* RBOB gasoline (November): 3.1980, down 1.89%
* Dutch TTF gas (November): 86.295, down 0.97%
* Gasoil, London (November): 1447.88, down 1.23%
* Zinc (LME): 3696.75, down 0.65%
* Nickel (LME): 15,327.75, down 1.35%
* US wheat (December): 668.40, down 0.72%
* US corn (December): 478.88, down 0.39%
* US soybeans (November): 1272.00, down 0.41%
* US soybean oil (December): 66.58, down 0.71%
* US soybean meal (December): 364.95, up 0.12%
* Oats: 399.20, up 0.18%