The Fed's September open market meeting made clear that it remains deeply divided on the future course of rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting made it clear that while the committee agreed on the need for a 25 basis point rate cut, it remained deeply divided on the future course of rates.
The latest chart of dots shows deep disagreement over how much further interest rates should be cut this year.
At the September meeting, the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points, and the median forecast pointed to two more cuts by the end of the year.
But six officials saw no need for further easing, while one policymaker's presentation didn't even include the latest cut.
The difference between the most dovish and dovish views was striking: the lowest forecast for the end of 2025 was 2.9%, while the highest was 4.3%.
"The gap between the high and low points was enormous, especially given that there are only two meetings left this year," Deutsche Bank analysts said.
Stephen Miran, who favored a half-point cut, emerged as the most outspoken advocate of policy easing. His forecast placed him at the far end of the distribution, calling for a much more accommodative policy than most.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was among those supporting the median path of two more quarter-point cuts, stating that such a pace is likely appropriate given labor market risks.
Others resist this view, such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who does not support another cut this year, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that the scope for further cuts is limited. These positions correspond to a cluster of points indicating no further easing in 2025.
Chairman Jerome Powell tried to downplay the median at a press conference, emphasizing that policy will depend on incoming data rather than any predetermined path.
But the range of opinions revealed by the chart highlights how uncertain the outlook is, with officials divided between a sustained pace of cuts and a more cautious approach.