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The ruble continues to strengthen, accelerating its rise on Wednesday — since the start of trading on Wednesday, the USD/RUB pair has already lost over 2.5%.
The quotes lost the level of 78 rubles, marking a minimum of 77.46 rubles on July 11. At the beginning of the month, the USD exchange rate on the forex market exceeded the level of 83 rubles.
The Russian currency continues to gain weight despite the bearish sentiment in the oil market. Brent collapsed to May lows around $61.50 per barrel the day before, and today it is trying to stabilize above the $62 mark. Pressure on black gold is exerted by a combination of fears of a global supply surplus and a new acute phase of the trade confrontation between the United States and China.
The geopolitical background also contradicts the current strengthening of the ruble — today it became known that Canada and Britain will join the process of confiscating frozen Russian assets. At the same time, the EU is preparing another package of sanctions against Moscow.
The dollar index itself is under pressure again, playing off Powell's statements yesterday, which reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange index is developing a systematic decline, trading at lows near the 2,520 zone, which is holding back further decline so far. Last week, the benchmark updated the 2025 low at 2,521.43 and is still unable to make a rebound.