AI has become the defining theme of the current market cycle.
Artificial intelligence has been hailed as a transformative force, and economists argue that today's investments will lead to stronger economic outcomes in the coming years. From this perspective, AI should support long-term growth by expanding production capabilities.
"The enthusiasm around artificial intelligence should be based on the expectation that investments today will lead to higher economic performance in the future," UBS economist Paul Donovan said in a research note.
In the short term, the impact is more complex. Investments themselves directly increase GDP, as they are considered as economic activity.
Building data centers, scaling digital infrastructure, and hiring engineers all contribute to current production and have already helped support U.S. economic growth. This effect is similar to any capital expenditure cycle.
However, the implementation of AI also uses existing resources intensively, which can suppress growth in other areas.
Donovan highlights research that shows regional electricity prices have increased significantly in areas where data centers are increasing electricity demand.
"Consumers who have to spend more on electricity will have less money for other goods and services," he said. "Energy-intensive businesses will face higher costs."
Higher energy costs also affect businesses outside the AI supply chain. For energy-intensive sectors, this reallocation of resources increases operating costs and threatens profitability.
Donovan warns that "weaker demand and higher costs could lead to the closure of some generally productive businesses," creating what he describes as a potential gap in the economic growth narrative.
The risk is that economically viable parts of today's economy may be displaced before AI brings the promised productivity gains.
Scale has become a key advantage, with US tech giants investing billions in AI infrastructure and investors seeking a place in what is already feeling like a crowded deal.
The group, often referred to as the" Magnificent Seven, " now accounts for a record 36% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization.
Although the surge in AI-related capital expenditures over the past year is only about 1% of national production, its impact on growth has been disproportionately large.
The rapid construction of data centers and digital infrastructure — costs that have quadrupled since 2020 — is directly impacting construction activity and driving industrial demand across multiple supply chains.
At the same time, household consumption, which accounts for most of the US GDP, is being boosted by the wealth effect of soaring stock prices.
The strong growth of the underlying indices, driven largely by mega-cap tech companies and two years of AI enthusiasm, has provided significant support for spending in the broader economy.
Whether this represents the early stages of a sustainable technological shift or the formation of a speculative bubble is currently one of the central discussions shaping both the stock market sentiment and the broader outlook for the U.S. economy.