A change in Venezuela's leadership will likely mark a dramatic shift in Washington's stated goals, moving from combating drug trafficking to a far more ambitious goal:
unlocking some of the world's largest oil reserves and reclaiming the country for American energy companies.
"The oil business in Venezuela has been a failure, a complete failure, for a long time," US President Donald Trump told reporters on Saturday.
"We're going to bring in our very large American oil companies, the largest in the world, to invest billions of dollars, rebuild the badly damaged infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country."
The key question for the Trump administration is whether political change alone is enough to revive an industry that has been undermined by decades of mismanagement, corruption, and underinvestment.
Venezuela possesses enormous oil potential: according to government data, proven reserves amount to over 300 billion barrels, mostly heavy crude, which is highly prized by refiners on the US Gulf Coast and in parts of Asia.
Analysts believe this type of oil complements US shale oil production, which is typically lighter and less suitable for certain refining configurations. Theoretically, Venezuela's reserves could play a significant role in global energy markets.
In practice, the obstacles are enormous. Venezuela currently produces less than one million barrels per day, a fraction of the level it produced two decades ago. Infrastructure has seriously deteriorated, skilled workers have left the country, and oil fields, pipelines, ports, and refineries require massive capital investment simply to become operational again.
Even under the best-case scenarios, it will take years of recovery before production can increase significantly. Market conditions add another layer of complexity. Global oil supplies are abundant, and prices below $60 per barrel reduce the incentive for large-scale, high-risk investments abroad.
US producers must weigh whether investing in stable domestic basins is better than in a country with a long history of expropriations and contractual disputes.
Legal and institutional reforms will also be necessary. Venezuela will need to revise laws governing private investment, restructure approximately $160 billion in debt, and resolve outstanding arbitration cases stemming from past nationalizations.
Without clear property rights and predictable rules, international oil companies are unlikely to invest billions of dollars, regardless of political change.
Security and governance also remain unresolved. Removing a leader does not automatically create stability, and companies will wait to see whether a transitional government can maintain order, protect assets, and establish authoritative authority across the country.
The scope of the necessary economic reconstruction extends far beyond oil production and includes financing, currency stability, and broader institutional restoration.
In this sense, unlocking Venezuela's oil reserves is less about geology than about politics, economics, and timing.