Bitcoin is struggling to hold its ground amid reports of a possible end to the US-Iran war. Earlier today,
the world's largest cryptocurrency briefly rose 2.6% to $68,335, following rising stock indices, but has since retreated and is currently trading at around $66,600.
Short-term optimism was fueled by reports in The Wall Street Journal that Trump is considering ending the military campaign without necessarily opening the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, the current resilience of cryptocurrencies amid the geopolitical crisis is noteworthy. In March, Bitcoin rose by approximately 3%, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold plummeted more than 13% due to inflation fears and the threat of a global energy shock.
As an analysis of the Bitcoin chart by Investing.com's WarrenAI smart chatbot shows, the asset's current resilience may be deceptive. On the daily timeframe, the coin is stuck in a tense zone of uncertainty between support at $65,000 and strong resistance around $71,000.
The global trend remains decidedly bearish: the price has consolidated below all key moving averages, and a heavy Ichimoku cloud hangs overhead, acting as a barrier for bulls.
The technical picture is forming a classic bearish flag continuation pattern. The chart also shows an inside day pattern, which, combined with falling volumes and decreasing volatility, is a harbinger of a sharp price impulse. The main threat lies in a breakout of the current downward consolidation: if buyers fail to hold their ground, Bitcoin risks a nosedive and an accelerated bottom test in the $60,000–$62,500 range.
Attempts to rally in the current environment are fraught with high risks, and the $65,500–$68,500 zone is considered "off-limits" due to its unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio.
According to the technical picture, if the price sharply breaks through $68,300 amid positive geopolitical conditions, this momentum risks being illusory. The rally will almost certainly fizzle out on the approach to $70,000, where a powerful cluster of sellers and Fibonacci retracement levels are concentrated.
