Bloomberg, citing JPMorgan analysts, reports that if full restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz takes until July, prices will soar by another $15–$20 per barrel.

The bank's team of experts, led by Parsley Ong, concludes that current oil prices are overly optimistic. The market is assuming a rapid unblocking of the strategic waterway, expecting transit to recover to half of normal levels by May and to reach 100% by June.

However, according to JPMorgan calculations, the reality may be harsher. "A more gradual and protracted return to pre-war traffic volumes, with 100% only reached by July, creates the risk of a price increase of $15-$20 per barrel," analysts warn.

Given that both global benchmarks—Brent and WTI—were trading just below $100 per barrel on Friday, the predicted surge would send futures back to the mid-March crisis peaks of around $120 per barrel.

Hundreds of commercial vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. JPMorgan estimates that as of April 9, there were 346 energy-related vessels in the Gulf. Of these, 241 were loaded with export goods.