The global oil market is at risk of returning to the highs seen during the height of the Middle East war.
Bloomberg, citing JPMorgan analysts, reports that if full restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz takes until July, prices will soar by another $15–$20 per barrel.
The bank's team of experts, led by Parsley Ong, concludes that current oil prices are overly optimistic. The market is assuming a rapid unblocking of the strategic waterway, expecting transit to recover to half of normal levels by May and to reach 100% by June.
However, according to JPMorgan calculations, the reality may be harsher. "A more gradual and protracted return to pre-war traffic volumes, with 100% only reached by July, creates the risk of a price increase of $15-$20 per barrel," analysts warn.
Given that both global benchmarks—Brent and WTI—were trading just below $100 per barrel on Friday, the predicted surge would send futures back to the mid-March crisis peaks of around $120 per barrel.
Hundreds of commercial vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. JPMorgan estimates that as of April 9, there were 346 energy-related vessels in the Gulf. Of these, 241 were loaded with export goods.