Cryptocurrency hunt: physical attacks on holders up 33% - Crypto criminals are increasingly targeting not digital wallets, but their owners themselves: the number of violent attacks is rising worldwide.
ECB keeps rates on hold, monitoring Iran energy shock - In deciding to keep its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, the ECB said the energy price outlook is "highly volatile".
Traders are entering next week practically blindsided ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
With seven days remaining until the July 29, 2026, monetary policy decision, swap markets are reflecting acute uncertainty: the probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike is 30%, while the probability of a rate hold is 70%.
This level of uncertainty ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is virtually unprecedented in modern central banking. This is precisely the result Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh sought when he took over the helm in May.
By dismantling the long-established practice of "forward guidance"—whereby the Fed would signal upcoming policy changes well in advance—Warsh has brought genuine intrigue back to the desks of analysts monitoring the central bank. His position is simple: pre-announced steps deprive policymakers of room to maneuver in the event of unexpected changes in inflation data.
According to Bloomberg News, the last time Wall Street experienced such heated debate ahead of the September 2024 meeting was when, under former Chairman Jerome Powell, the question was whether the Fed would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points to support the cooling labor market. Powell ultimately opted for a more decisive cut.
Today, the trend is moving in the opposite direction.
Warsh has repeatedly warned that inflation remains persistent and significantly above the Fed's 2% target. While most traders are betting on higher borrowing costs by the end of 2026, the exact timing remains unclear.
For traders, the new rules of the game mean higher volatility—and a complete lack of a safety net.