Oil prices fell almost 3% on Friday, but remained on track for a 10% gain for the week amid the escalation of the war between the US and Iran.
US Central Command concluded its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. According to the agency, more than 50,000 American troops are currently operating in the Middle East.
Trump said on Thursday that he was considering a "massive attack" on Iran after fighting spread to the Red Sea. According to Trump, the strikes would be the largest of the entire war, and Iran "hasn't yet been hurt enough."
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to subside anytime soon. Against this backdrop, we see a solid weekly rise in Brent, which reached $102 per barrel on Thursday.
Technical picture
Brent is trading at $97.57, caught in a battle between key support and resistance. A major double-top reversal pattern has formed on the chart at $102, indicating bearish dominance after the recent rally.
The 200-day moving average ($97.24) is the main dynamic support—as long as it is not broken, a rebound remains possible. From above, the price is under pressure from the 50-day moving average and the SuperTrend ($98.50–99.41): as long as quotes are below these levels, the short-term trend remains bearish.
The MACD is turning in favor of the bulls—the growing difference between the line and the signal indicates a transition in short-term momentum. The RSI at 41.18 has broken out of oversold territory, but buyers still lack confidence. A bullish engulfing pattern has formed at $96.41, which could trigger a corrective rebound, but volume has been declining on the recent rise, clearly providing insufficient confirmation for the bulls.
Key Levels
Support: $97.24 (200-day MA), $96.40 (critical level—a loss would open the way to $95.93 and $94.06). Resistance: $98.50–99.41 (SuperTrend and 50-day MA), $102.00 (double top).
The $97.25–98.50 zone remains a range of uncertainty between the 200-day MA support and the SuperTrend resistance—opening positions here is risky. The Brent technical analysis page paints a more optimistic picture on higher timeframes. On shorter timeframes (1 minute to 15 minutes), Buy and Strong Buy signals predominate, while Neutral signals prevail on the 30-minute and hourly charts.
From the 5-hour chart all the way up to the monthly chart, Strong Buy dominates. The daily timeframe summary is Buy: both technical indicators and moving averages point to a buy. This divergence from the short-term picture, as analyzed by WarrenAI, is explained by the fact that Brent's long-term trend remains up against the backdrop of a geopolitical premium, while a correction is forming on the daily chart after the peak of $102.
Conclusion
Brent is squeezed between a geopolitical premium and a technical correction. The double top at $102 and declining volume on the rebounds warn of selling pressure. However, the 200-day moving average is still holding, and long-term signals remain bullish. The key level is $96.40: a loss here will accelerate the decline.