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Bitcoin and Nasdaq: what happens to BTC if AI stocks keep falling?
Сryptocurrency
Bitcoin has fallen 1.57% over the past week, with a daily low of $80,347. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 27,193.34 (−1.25%) on October 8; it remained virtually unchanged over the week (+0.01%).
What the Correlation Says
The link between Bitcoin and stocks is unstable but has a history. By the end of August, the 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 had dropped from 60% to 33%, while the correlation with gold exceeded 50% amid a shift away from devaluing currencies (the "debasement trade"). In September, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 moved in tandem again, driven by shared factors: Fed rates, bond yields, oil prices, and risk appetite.
This connection intensifies during periods of panic surrounding AI stocks. In June, Bitcoin fell alongside the tech sector but often lagged during rallies. This asymmetry was evident this week as well: on October 8, AI stocks dropped following revenue data from OpenAI (Nvidia fell 2.94%, Oracle 5.48%) and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.25%, while Bitcoin dipped to $80,347 on Friday morning. Consequently, a Nasdaq recovery does not guarantee a rise in Bitcoin.
Technical Outlook
Daily chart. The MACD, short-term moving averages, and oscillators are signaling a "sell": this is a pullback. The RSI stands at 52.3 (neutral), the ADX at 37.6 (established trend), and the Stochastic RSI (8) indicates oversold conditions.
Weekly chart. "Buy" signals: almost all moving averages are below the price, and the MACD is positive. However, the Stochastic is in overbought territory. The weekly timeframe is better for determining direction, while the daily is better for timing. This is a pullback within an uptrend (up ~31.5% over three months), not a reversal signal.
Levels
Support. The daily low of $80,347 and the $80k–$81k zone, followed by the September consolidation zone of $72k–$76k.
Resistance. Short-term moving averages (SMA 5, 10, and 20) near $84k, the $84k–$85k zone, and then the early October high near $87k. Beyond that, the weekly SMA 100 (around $89.8k) serves as a reference point.
Scenarios through the end of October
These are not forecasts, but conditions under which a scenario would play out.
* Bullish. Nasdaq returns to highs; oil prices and bond yields remain stable. In this case, Bitcoin could return to $85k or higher, supported by ETF inflows.
* Bearish. The sell-off in AI stocks continues. Bitcoin could then test the $80k–$81k level and, if that breaks, the $72k–$76k zone. Bitcoin tends to react more strongly to stock market declines than to gains.
* Key risks. Key factors to consider include expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate (driven by US inflation data on October 14 and the Fed meeting on October 27–28), Treasury yields (with the 10-year yield hovering around 5.3%), and oil prices. It is important to note that the correlation between these factors is inconsistent, at times breaking down and at others re-emerging.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.