On Tuesday, Bitcoin failed to hold above $82,000; as of 11:46 Moscow time,
it was trading near $81,541, down 1.57% over the past 24 hours. The daily price range spanned from $81,209 to $83,100. According to Crypto.news, the price is under pressure due to weak demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s next move following unexpectedly high inflation, and active selling in the derivatives market.
Bitcoin has remained in a downward correction since the beginning of October. The closing price on October 4 was $86,511, falling to $81,742 by October 8 (a decline of approximately 5.5%). Over the last two weeks, the price has fluctuated within a range of roughly $79,900 to $84,400, unable to establish a firm position above $82,000; on Monday, it climbed as high as $83,129 but closed at $81,945. Meanwhile, Ethereum has fallen by 1.91% to $2,388.87. A slight decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (-0.22%) failed to provide any support for Bitcoin.
Why is BTC falling?
Institutional demand: Approximately $228.6 million flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, following an outflow of nearly $681 million the week prior. While the pace of outflows has slowed, capital has yet to return.
Derivatives: The primary downward pressure has come from sellers in the perpetual futures market, while trading volumes for ETFs have remained below average. In the options market, protection against further declines is becoming more expensive: the skew toward put options has increased, signaling that traders are pricing in downside risk. On-chain activity has also weakened, with transaction fees and transfer volumes both falling by approximately 10%.
Macroeconomics: U.S. inflation for September came in at 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 3.6% forecast. Hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy have faded, and Treasury yields remain high—making them more attractive than cryptocurrencies. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. On Monday, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $82,000 amid a drop in oil prices, but the rally quickly fizzled out.
Spot demand remains weak; the cumulative volume delta in the spot market worsened from -$67 million to -$83.6 million over the week. At the same time, sellers are pulling back: the share of supply in profit has declined from 70.1% to 68.2%, and profit-taking has slowed. There are also positive signs: large holders (owning 1,000–10,000 BTC) have shifted from selling (-62,600 BTC) to accumulating (+5,230 BTC) over the last 60 days, while USDT reserves on Binance have grown from approximately $790 million to $1.76 billion.
Comparison with Equities
The U.S. stock market rebounded on Monday, with the Nasdaq rising 1.11% following its worst week since June, and semiconductor stocks staging a recovery. Bitcoin did not participate in this move, ending the day in the red (-0.23%). QCP analysts note that investors are shifting from the semiconductor sector toward defensive sectors, while there is no evidence of institutional capital flowing into cryptocurrencies.
The long-term outlook, however, is different. For the first time, JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts, projecting an annualized compound return of 10% over a 10–15-year horizon—compared to 7.5% for large-cap U.S. stocks, 8.2% for real estate (REITs), and 5.5% for gold. This comes with higher risk, however: Bitcoin’s volatility is estimated at 55% annually, versus approximately 18% for stocks and 17.2% for gold. The bank does not incorporate Bitcoin into its core asset allocation models, citing its high volatility and unstable correlation with other assets.
The technical picture is mixed. On the daily chart, the price is trading near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud (around $81,144); the Chaikin Money Flow indicator is negative (-0.10), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 48 (neutral). On the four-hour chart, the downward momentum is weakening—with the MACD crossing its signal line—though it remains in negative territory.
The base-case scenario is a sideways trend within a range of approximately $79,600–$83,500. A rebound would require the price to stabilize above the $81,900–$82,000 level, followed by a move past $82,587 and $83,457. To restore an upward trend, the price would need to climb back above $84,000—a level that was lost in early October. If the price falls below $81,100 and $80,000, the next targets will be the $77,500–$78,000 range, or $76,000 should selling pressure intensify.
Risk factors include the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28, earnings reports from major companies, U.S. economic data due this week (such as jobless claims and oil inventory figures), and the expiration of options—an event that could see a shift from low volatility to sharp price movements.