The cryptocurrency had climbed to $84,879 the previous day, closing at $84,104; however, after an attempt to rise to $84,396 today, it reversed downward, hitting a daily low of $81,920. The price has dropped below the daily 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) and is approaching the support zone of $81,602–$81,851.

While sellers currently remain in control, the asset’s short-term oversold status leaves room for a potential rebound. The following signals would indicate that the downward momentum is losing steam:

A return above $82,333. This serves as an hourly pivot level. Establishing a position above this mark would open the path toward $82,733–$82,904, followed by the daily resistance zone of $83,866–$84,730. Currently, the hourly chart shows an "actively sell" signal, with all 12 moving averages pointing toward a sell.

An exit from oversold territory on the RSI. The hourly RSI stands at 28.93, while the Stochastic RSI is at 0. These conditions create the potential for a technical rebound, though they do not confirm a full reversal. The daily RSI is at 48.31, indicating that momentum remains neutral for now.

An upward reversal of the MACD. On the daily chart, the MACD is at 109.99, the signal line is at 268.97, and the histogram is at −158.98. The first positive signal will emerge if the negative value of the histogram begins to shrink and the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

What could revive demand

ETF flows are the primary driver. An analysis from October 2 linked continued growth to steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, improved global liquidity, and declining bond yields. Conversely, a sharp rise in yields and the US dollar could trigger another round of profit-taking.

Macroeconomics is the key catalyst. In September, when the yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed above 5.1%, Bitcoin fell by approximately 4%. Therefore, softer inflation data, diminished expectations for interest rate hikes, and lower yields would serve as a powerful catalyst.

Risk appetite needs to recover—recently, US corporate earnings bolstered risk assets, helping Bitcoin climb above $84,000. However, the $83,866–$84,730 zone has capped gains for two consecutive days; the price briefly pushed above this range yesterday, only to turn downward today from a high of $84,396. If the technology sector stabilizes and ETF inflows remain steady, the cryptocurrency may make another attempt to break through this resistance.

Scenarios

Bullish: Holding the $81,602–$81,851 range, followed by a move back above $82,333 and $83,866—a level that held firm as recently as yesterday. This would restore the short-term uptrend structure. Bearish: A loss of the $81,602 level will increase downward pressure toward the $80,589–$79,479 range. On the weekly chart, the structure remains constructive—with an RSI of 58.27 and a positive MACD—though the Stochastic RSI indicates an overbought condition.

Bottom line: A near-term rebound is possible due to oversold conditions on the hourly chart. For sustained growth, a combination of positive ETF demand, declining yields, and a firm move above $83,866 is required.