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03.03.2026

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03.03.2026

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OPEC+ confirms decision to suspend oil production increase in 2026

01.12.2025
Economy
OPEC+ confirms decision to suspend oil production increase in 2026
OPEC+ confirms decision to suspend oil production increase in 2026

On November 2, 2025, the eight participating countries confirmed their decision to suspend production increases in January, February and March 2026 due to seasonal factors.

On November 30, 2025, eight OPEC+ countries that had previously announced additional voluntary production cuts in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, held a virtual meeting to discuss the global market situation and prospects.

Eight participating countries have confirmed that 1.65 million barrels per day can be partially or completely returned, depending on changing market conditions and the gradual recovery of production. Countries will continue to closely monitor and evaluate market conditions.

As part of their ongoing efforts to maintain market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of a cautious approach and maintaining full flexibility to suspend or cancel additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously announced voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day, which were announced in November 2023.

The eight countries reaffirmed their collective commitment to achieving full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, including additional voluntary production adjustments, which will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any excess production starting in January 2024.

The eight OPEC+ member countries will hold monthly meetings to discuss market conditions, compliance, and compensation. The eighth meeting will be held on January 4, 2026.

Oil prices moved to growth after OPEC+ confirmed plans to abandon production increases in the first quarter. An additional driver was traders' concerns about the consequences of Donald Trump's harsh rhetoric towards Venezuela, Bloomberg writes.

Brent crude is trading near $63.6 per barrel, while WTI has gained ground above $59.8 per barrel.

In November, oil prices fell for the fourth month in a row. The pressure is exerted by expectations of a surplus: the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record glut of the market in 2026.

"Although the market outlook remains bearish due to the expected surplus, the continued risks of supply disruptions mean that fundamental factors need more time to fully reflect in prices," said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Groep NV.

In addition, on Saturday, Donald Trump increased pressure on Caracas, saying that airlines should consider the airspace over the country closed. Later, he softened his rhetoric, but the concentration of the US armed forces in the region keeps the market on edge.

In general, analysts believe that the current rise in oil prices is unsustainable.

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