The main surprise of the trading session was the enormous gap between the price of physical oil and exchange quotes. The spot price of $141.36 was $32.33 higher than the price of Brent futures for June delivery, which closed at $109.03 per barrel.

Experts are sounding the alarm: futures markets, which most analysts and macroeconomists rely on, are creating a dangerous illusion of control.

"Futures prices are creating a false sense of security, as if the situation isn't that tense," said Amrita Sen, founder of the analytics firm Energy Aspects. "The financial market is currently masking the horrific shortage of real crude that is evident everywhere." As an example, Sen cited the situation in Europe, where the price of a barrel of wholesale diesel has already reached an astronomical $200.

Simultaneously, Iranian oil has made an unprecedented price reversal, trading at a premium to the global benchmark Brent for the first time since May 2022, Bloomberg reports. The price of Iranian Light, Iran's main export grade, has moved into positive territory against Brent, reaching a premium of $1 per barrel. By comparison, as recently as early 2026, Iran was forced to sell its oil (primarily to China) at a discount of around $10 per barrel.